Analysis of the Current Situation of PVC Industry
Release time:2025-07-29
Analysts are calling on the industry to optimize the export structure and reduce low-price and homogeneous competition.
By 2025, China's total PVC production capacity has exceeded 30 million tons, but the industry utilization rate remains below 70%. The Northwest region (leveraging coal-electricity integration) holds significant cost advantages, while older facilities in East/South China are gradually phasing out.
Accelerated overseas expansion: New capacities in the U.S. (ethane-based) and the Middle East (low-cost ethylene) are disrupting global trade flows, intensifying competitive pressure on Chinese exports.
Structural Shifts in Demand:
Pressure on traditional sectors: Under the real estate "inventory reduction" policy, demand for construction-related PVC (pipes, profiles) has declined by 5%-8% year-on-year, though urban renewal and subsidized housing projects provide partial offset.
Emerging sectors booming: Demand from new energy (PV backsheets, charging pile cables), healthcare (disposable consumables), and automotive lightweighting (interior components) is growing at over 15% annually, now accounting for more than 25% of total demand.
Cost and Profit Challenges:
Calcium carbide-based PVC faces constraints from "dual carbon" policies, with rising carbon emission costs, while ethylene-based capacity has grown to 40% (up from 25% in 2021).
High volatility in international oil prices has exacerbated profit fluctuations for ethylene-based producers, keeping industry-wide profit margins at a low 5%-8%.
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The global demand for PVC will continue to grow in 2025, with Asia leading the consumption
Analysts point out that environmental protection policies and the promotion of recycled PVC may pose challenges to the traditional PVC market, but in the short term, rigid demand will still support industry growth.
With the advancement of the global carbon neutrality process, the trend of green transformation in the PVC industry will be significant by 2025. Research reports indicate that bio-based PVC and recycled PVC will become investment hotspots, with market sizes expected to grow to 1.2 million tons and 3 million tons respectively by 2025.
Analysts suggest that PVC producers need to hedge risks by integrating the industrial chain (such as supporting chlor-alkali facilities) or signing long-term raw material agreements.
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